Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 15.39 percent in August 2026, down from 15.43 percent in July, as food price increases slowed sharply, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has said.
The figure is well below the 23.14 percent recorded in August 2025, and marks another month of slowing annual inflation after the rate had been climbing through much of the first half of the year. On a month-on-month basis, the rate of price increases fell sharply to 0.71 percent in August from 1.57 percent in July, meaning prices rose more slowly during the month than they had been rising before.
Food inflation, historically the biggest driver of Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis, dropped to 19.57 percent year-on-year in August from 25.30 percent a year earlier, while on a monthly basis it slowed to 1.02 percent from 5.56 percent in July. The NBS attributed the easing to falling prices for items including palm oil, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, frozen chicken and fish. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also fell, to 13.29 percent year-on-year from 22.93 percent a year earlier.
A Number That Looks Very Different From a Year Ago, and Why
Comparing today’s figure to 2025 and earlier tells only part of the story, because the way Nigeria measures inflation itself changed in the middle of this trend. Headline inflation peaked at 34.80 percent in December 2024, the highest level in roughly three decades, driven largely by a weaker naira and soaring food prices. In early 2025, the NBS rebased the Consumer Price Index, updating its base year from 2009 to 2024 and expanding its basket of tracked goods from 740 to 934 items, which caused the reported rate to fall sharply, from 34.80 percent to 24.48 percent, even though prices themselves had not actually dropped. Since then, the rate has continued easing on the new methodology, reaching August’s 15.39 percent.
What’s Driving the Slowdown, and What It Means for Interest Rates
Analysts have linked the recent moderation to the relative stability of the naira and improving food supply, alongside a high base effect from the sharp price rises recorded a year earlier. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has kept its benchmark interest rate at 26.5 percent since July, citing the moderating inflation trend, and is due to meet again on September 21 and 22, with the easing August figures giving it more room to consider cutting the rate for the first time in the current cycle.
A lower policy rate would matter well beyond the financial markets. Nigeria’s benchmark rate affects how much banks charge to lend to businesses and individuals, so a cut could make loans cheaper for small businesses and, over time, support economic growth. But if the central bank moves too quickly and inflation picks up again, it risks undoing the progress made over the past several months.
Why a Slower Rise Does Not Mean Nigerians Are Paying Less
It is worth being clear about what a falling inflation rate actually means: it does not mean prices are coming down, only that they are rising more slowly than before. The NBS itself noted that its Consumer Price Index, which tracks the overall price level, actually rose to 146.3 points in August from 145.3 points in July, even as the annual inflation rate fell. In plain terms, food and other goods are still getting more expensive each month, just not as quickly as they were a year ago.
The relief is also far from even across the country. Year-on-year food inflation was highest in Adamawa State at 38.85 percent, followed by Zamfara at 37.96 percent and Bayelsa at 36.20 percent, while it was lowest, and even negative, in Borno at -4.04 percent, Jigawa at -0.23 percent and Kebbi at 3.47 percent. That means a national headline figure like 15.39 percent can mask sharply different realities depending on where a family lives and shops.
What Would Make This Relief Feel Real to Ordinary Nigerians
For the moderation to translate into a lower cost of living, rather than just a slower rate of increase, food supply needs to keep improving in the states still seeing the steepest price rises, particularly in the North-East and parts of the North-West, where insecurity has repeatedly disrupted farming. Continued naira stability and steady fuel and transport costs will also matter, since transport remains one of the largest contributors to the overall inflation figure. Economists have also called for the NBS to keep publishing state-by-state and item-level breakdowns alongside the national figure, so that both policymakers and citizens can see where the burden of high prices is actually falling heaviest.
Why We Think Nigerians Should Read This Number Carefully
We think it is right to welcome five straight months of slowing inflation, because a runaway cost of living has been one of the most painful realities for Nigerian households in recent years, and any genuine easing deserves recognition. At the same time, we do not think ordinary Nigerians should be told to simply feel better because a percentage fell from 15.43 to 15.39. Prices are still rising every month, just more gently, and in some states food is still getting dramatically more expensive even as the national figure improves. Until a family in Adamawa or Zamfara feels the same relief as the national statistics suggest, we believe this story is only half told, and journalists, policymakers and the NBS all have a duty to keep telling the other half.
Published by Ejoh Caleb
