Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has told Nigerians that investing about N100,000 in the ongoing Dangote Petroleum Refinery share offer could turn them into millionaires within one or two years.
Speaking on Arise Television as the refinery’s Initial Public Offering (IPO), a public sale of company shares that lets ordinary people buy a stake in a business, opened to investors, Dangote said: “What we are looking at if you invest something like N100K within 1 year or 2 years or so, you are talking about you becoming a millionaire.” He urged investors to hold on to their shares rather than sell early, saying, “Why do you want to sell it? You remain there, you’ll be collecting that money.”
The refinery’s shares are being offered at N525 each, as part of a plan to raise about N2.15 trillion from 4.1 billion shares, with the offer open from September 14 to October 13. Dangote also said investors could receive dividends in dollars, which he argued would protect them if the naira loses value.
A Country That Has Heard Big Promises Before
Nigerians have good reason to listen carefully to any promise of fast, easy wealth, because the country has a long history of such promises going badly wrong. Mavrodi Mondial Moneybox (MMM), which promised 30 percent monthly returns, drew in over three million Nigerians before it collapsed in December 2016, leaving investors with an estimated N18 billion in losses. More recently, MBA Forex promised strong returns from currency trading and folded in 2021 after taking in roughly N171 billion from investors, while newer platforms keep appearing with similar promises.
It is important to note that the Dangote Refinery IPO is a different kind of offer. It involves a real, operating industrial asset, is regulated by Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and is backed by audited company accounts, unlike the unlicensed schemes above. Even so, the SEC has already warned Nigerians taking part in this specific IPO to be careful of fraudsters posing as agents of the offer, and to use only approved channels to apply and pay.
Why the Excitement, and What It Could Mean for the Wider Economy
Part of the excitement comes from Dangote’s own track record and the scale of the refinery, which generated about N19.47 trillion in revenue in the first half of 2026 alone. Dangote has framed the IPO as a chance for ordinary Nigerians, including teachers, artisans, civil servants and students, to own a piece of a major industrial asset rather than watch it stay in a few private hands.
If the offer succeeds, it could deepen Nigeria’s capital market by pulling more ordinary citizens’ savings into shares rather than cash or informal savings groups, and its size alone, at N2.15 trillion, makes it one of the largest share sales in African stock market history. But if new investors go in expecting guaranteed millionaire status and the share price instead falls or stays flat, it could also damage public trust in the Nigerian Exchange at a time when the country is trying to encourage more citizens to invest formally rather than through informal or fraudulent schemes.
Weighing the Bull and Bear Case
Analysts are split on whether Dangote’s optimism is fully justified. Some research houses, including CardinalStone and Chapel Hill Denham, have valued the refinery well above its N525 offer price, suggesting real room for the share price to rise if the company keeps growing earnings and completes its planned expansion.
Other analysts are more cautious. Some note that the offer values the refinery at roughly $47 to 50 billion, more than double the about $20 billion it cost to build, and well above the pricing multiples used for comparable international refiners. They warn that if the refinery’s expansion or earnings growth falls short, the share price could trade below its N525 offer price rather than rise toward the levels needed to turn N100,000 into N1 million. One commentary specifically cautioned small, short-term investors against expecting quick riches, urging “cautious optimism rather than fear or excessive excitement.”
What Ordinary Investors Should Check Before Putting In Their Money
Anyone considering the offer should read the prospectus rather than rely only on interviews, since it contains the refinery’s actual debt levels, dividend terms and risk factors. Investors should also apply only through the authorised receiving agents and approved platforms the SEC has named, to avoid falling victim to fraudsters exploiting the excitement around the IPO. Because no share price rise is guaranteed, financial experts generally advise investing only money one can afford to leave untouched for the one-to-two-year horizon Dangote described, rather than funds needed for daily survival.
A Hope We Want to See Realised, Carefully
We would be glad to see ordinary Nigerians, especially those without any history of owning shares, build real wealth from this offer. Dangote has built businesses that created jobs and infrastructure before, and that record deserves to count for something. At the same time, we think it is our job to remind readers that no public figure, however credible, can guarantee what a share price will do over the next two years. Markets move on facts and execution, not promises made in an interview. Our honest hope is that Nigerians who invest do so with their eyes open, having read the prospectus and understood the risks, so that whatever happens to the share price, they are not caught by surprise.
Published by Ejoh Caleb
