What is unfolding in Nigeria’s political landscape does not resemble typical Tinubu. Instead, it mirrors the zigzag, erratic motion of a drunkard—a description often associated with Wike. While I cannot confirm Wike’s private habits, his mannerisms, speech, and actions suggest clumsiness and lack of subtlety.
By contrast, Tinubu is widely regarded as a “smooth operator”, skilled at concealing his actions. With Tinubu, the manipulation is felt but not seen, giving an appearance of legitimacy while achieving strategic objectives.
Rivers State Presidential Results 2023
The declared results in Rivers State were highly suspicious. Tinubu was reported to have received 75% of the votes—an impossible figure in a PDP stronghold energized by Peter Obi’s support.
APC data officers allegedly confessed that Wike’s assignment was to ensure Tinubu received a minimum of 25%, inflating numbers artificially. INEC eventually displayed corrected results on the IReV platform, giving victory to Obi, likely to mitigate the embarrassment of the initial figures.
This recalls past instances like Ogun State, 2003, where courts cancelled elections due to manipulation. Tinubu’s careful strategy in Lagos and Abuja ensured that the results appeared more credible in key areas.
Clumsy Politics vs. Strategic Manipulation
The current political motions are zigzag, unrefined, and visible to all, in sharp contrast to Tinubu’s calculated subtlety. This lack of concealment risks undermining public trust and credibility of institutions.
Opposition Unity: A Growing Threat
Previously fractured opposition parties are now consolidating, with southern leaders like Peter Obi and northern figures like Atiku Abubakar and Kwakwanso forming a potentially formidable alliance.
This unified opposition could amplify popular discontent with governance, presenting a real challenge to Tinubu’s influence in 2027.
Courts and INEC Under Strain
The judiciary and INEC, crucial pillars of the 2023 elections, are now compromised:
Courts have repeatedly issued decisions tilting the scale against the opposition.
INEC has blocked ADC’s conventions, despite sections 85 and 86 of the Electoral Act (2026) preventing interlocutory court orders from hindering political party activities.
The weakening of these institutions erodes public trust and threatens the integrity of future elections.
Reflection on Tinubu’s Strategy
It is difficult to believe that Tinubu would endanger the credibility of courts and INEC deliberately, as these were crucial to his 2023 victory.
Questions arise:
- Has pride and arrogance overtaken him?
- Has he delegated responsibility to Wike, whose actions appear clumsy?
The fragmented opposition in 2023 helped Tinubu secure victory, but a united opposition in 2027 could dramatically change the landscape.
Conclusion
The twin pillars of Tinubu’s 2023 win—courts and INEC—are now weakened, while the opposition is increasingly unified. The 2027 election is uncertain, and only time (or divine providence) will reveal its outcome.
Published by Chuks Nwachuku
