OBI – MISSION POSSIBLE
It is now clear from the utterances of Kwakwanso that he is playing for the position of beautiful bride in a second ballot. He is in this game to drag it to the second ballot i.e. to ensure that none of the candidates in the presidential election secures a clear victory on the first ballot. That would happen if a candidate gets the majority of votes but fails to secure 25% of the votes in two thirds of the 36 States. Incidentally, this was what Buhari played for in the first three of his four attempts at the presidency.
Nigeria has 6 political zones. The NW has 7 States, which is the highest. The NE and NC have 6 States each, making a total of 19 States for the North. The SW and SS also have 6 States each. However, the SE has 5 States, an anomaly that should be addressed for the reason that it defeats the requirement of spread. It makes it possible for a candidate to become President without securing 25% of the votes in at least one State of the former Eastern Region. That was how a myopic Buhari became President and wreaked havoc on the nation with his nepotism.
With four frontline contenders, the race has become more tight than before. Tinubu’s calculation of walking the same path that Buhari did will not be that easy. Of the four contenders, Obi is the only Christian. It is both a plus and a minus. It is a plus in the sense that he could have block Christian votes while the others share the Muslim votes amongst them. It is a minus in the sense that if the election should drag into a second ballot, the other Muslims would most likely support their mate. This is in addition to the fact that either of Kwakwanso or Atiku would prefer to go with their fellow Northerner. Kwakwanso has sounded that way already.
Obi therefore cannot afford for the election to go to the second ballot. It means that Obi must secure 25% of the votes in 24 States of the country. It is daunting but possible.
Obi is sure of the 11 States of the SE and SS. His focus should be to secure 25% of the votes in the 12 States of the SW and NC. That would bring the tally to 23 States. He would then need just one more State from both of the NW and NE. Block votes from the SE and SS with appreciable votes in the NC and SW should give him the numerical majority.
A new Nigeria is Possible.
Chuks Nwachuku
Jan. 2023.
