In 2015, Tinubu convinced hitherto disparate political interests to come together in a coalition to remove Jonathan. The APC coalition succeeded for a number of reasons. ADC is an attempt to re-enact such a coalition. Below are the factors that accounted for the success of the 2015 APC coalition and which the sponsors of ADC seem to have lost sight of.
The Moral High Ground.
In 2015, PDP had been in power for 16 years. Out of those years, the North had had only less than 3 years owing to the death of Yar’Adua, who took over from Obasanjo after 8 years but who later succumbed to kidney disease after less than 3 years in power. He was succeeded by Jonathan who completed his tenure, won a substantive first term and then wished to add a second term of top of that, which would have given him a combined period of almost ten years as the nation’s Commander in Chief. There was justifiable agitation for a power shift to the North, which nearly the entire nation identified with. The APC coalition ignited empathy in the people for the cause of the North and their candidate. To replicate this factor, the ADC coalition has to look the way of Obi, who is from the area of the country that ought to have benefitted from the zoning of the presidency to the South in 2023 and now wears the look of the cheated, marginalized and deprived. ADC can evoke a powerful appeal of empathy for the South East to turn Tinubu into a monster in the eyes of the people overnight to replicate what APC did to Jonathan. There has to be something new and noble in the Coalition for it to succeed.
A popular and Charismatic Candidate
In 2015, APC coalition rode on the back of the popularity of Buhari in the North that felt cheated out of power by the death of Yar’Adua. Buhari had consistently obtained the highest votes in the North by an individual. He needed only a little support from the South, which hitherto had eluded him because he was not trusted by the South. The APC coalition rode on that popularity and supplied the absent support from the South and it was game over for Jonathan. The person with that mass appeal, charisma and cult following within the ADC coalition is Peter Obi. Like Buhari, he only needs a little support from the North. Tinubu restrained his political ambition in 2015 to give support to Buhari who he hitherto loathed and had dismissed as a bigoted and extremist person who should not be allowed to come close to power. Tinubu did not argue when Buhari him rejected him for the office of Vice President. He did not take any ministerial post. He put his ambition in the back seat and allowed the APC coalition to soar. That’s what Atiku, El Rufai and Amaechi need to do for Obi for the ADC coalition to amount to something.
New Message of Change
Buhari had built an image as an honest and Spartan personality. APC was able to coin a message of CHANGE from this drawing a contrast with what Nigerians perceived to be the corruption under the PDP. Again, the only person that represents change and a new beginning for Nigeria within the fold of the ADC is Peter Obi. He has built a solid reputation for simple honesty, frugality and accountability in public service which the consistent attacks of his opponents, including those in the ADC coalition, have not been able to put a dent on. Obi says that he represents the possibility of a New Nigeria. No one seriously doubts that. In so many ways, including a rapprochement to the issues around the civil war and ethno-religious division in Nigeria and a new culture of leadership and public service, Obi represents the possibility of a New Nigeria. His mantra, “A New Nigeria is POssible is one that the coalition can ride on and that can be trusted to catch on like wild fire across the length and breath of Nigeria.
In conclusion, one thing that Tinubu has that makes him a better master of the game of politics than most of those in the ADC is his understanding of timing which made him keep his ambition in check until the most opportune time. If the Northerners, Atiku and El Rufa, in particular, can play the same game this time around, the ADC coalition is certain to be in power in 2027, God willing.
By Chuks Nwachuku, legal practitioner and leadership and good governance advocate; [email protected]
